As seen in The Observer – El Niño 2026: Agribusiness at risk
Dr Andrew Coburn, Founder and Chairman of Risilience, features in The Observer article, “An El Niño ‘Godzilla’ is coming, and global food supplies could be in danger”, (June 14, 2026) examining the potential threat of a severe El Niño to global food systems, commodity markets and consumer prices.
The feature underlines the material risks across agricultural supply chains as scientists warn that the developing El Niño could rival the major 1982/83 and 1997/98 events and, under some forecasts, approach the strongest El Niño conditions ever recorded. Drawing on Risilience’s expertise in climate and nature risk and scenario analysis, Dr Coburn explains how simultaneous disruptions across multiple food-producing regions could create widespread price shocks to many of the staple products consumers rely on every day.
In Sunday’s edition of The Observer, Dr Coburn discusses how climate risk modeling helps organizations anticipate these systemic shocks and transition from reactive crisis management to strategic resilience. The coverage follows Risilience’s recent analysis, El Niño 2026: Agribusiness at Risk, which quantifies the potential financial consequences of a severe or extreme El Niño scenario. The scenario analysis found that global agricultural production could fall by as much as 14%, equivalent to more than $342 billion in lost output. A Super El Niño is likely to trigger correlated supply failures across multiple continents that could push commodity prices up by 50% to 100% for crops like rice, coffee, and palm oil.
The Observer’s decision to feature Risilience analysis reflects the growing demand for financially grounded insight into climate and nature risk. By combining advanced climate science and scenario analysis with financial modeling, Risilience helps organizations understand how emerging environmental risks can affect revenue, costs, supply chains and long-term business resilience, enabling better-informed strategic decisions in an increasingly unpredictable global climate.