While Russian forces continue to attempt to encircle Kyiv from its western and eastern outskirts, efforts to replace combat losses and deploy additional reinforcements forward are unlikely to enable them to successfully resume major operations around the capital any time soon. On the contrary, Ukrainian forces have reclaimed some ground around Bovary to the east of the capital and remain in control of large areas in its southern periphery.

In the South of the country, although their advance has now significantly slowed following initially rapid gains – with their main goal being the creation of a land corridor between Crimea and the Russia-backed eastern territories – Russian forces continue to make steady progress around the city of Mariupol. But up in the north and north-east their advance continues to be frustrated by Ukrainian resistance. With the initial aspirations for a quick victory now gone completely, Russia’s new objective may seem to have shifted toward winning Ukraine’s resistance in the east in the hope that Kyiv will surrender its eastern regions in exchange for the end of the war.